Every year around now, someone sits across from me and says the same thing: we'll wait until spring, nobody buys in December. I understand the instinct. So instead of arguing, I pulled what actually happened in four South Orange County cities last November and December, and what those same cities look like right now. The numbers are more encouraging than the instinct.
Sales do not stop. They slow a little.
Redfin counted 165 home sales in Laguna Niguel in November 2025 and 162 in December. For comparison, September 2025 had 177 and June 2026 had 197. December ran at roughly four out of five of the June pace. That is a slower month, not a dead one.
Mission Viejo followed the same pattern: 199 sales in November and 202 in December, against 254 in September 2025 and 286 in June 2026. Aliso Viejo closed 95 homes in each of November and December, which was actually more than the 87 it closed in September 2025. Dana Point closed 106 in November and 100 in December against 110 in September 2025.
What sellers actually got
This is the part the wait-for-spring crowd misses. In Laguna Niguel, homes sold for 98.3% of list price in both November and December 2025. Right now, for the three months ending September 2026, that figure is 98.7%. The difference is four tenths of a point.
Mission Viejo sellers got 99.4% of list in November and 99.3% in December, compared with 99.1% now. Aliso Viejo: 99.1% in November, 99.3% in December, 99.1% now. Dana Point: 97.3% and 97.5% over the holidays, 98.3% now. In three of the four cities, holiday sellers gave up nothing on the list-to-sale spread. In the fourth, they gave up about a point.
Price cuts were rarer, not more common
I expected the holiday months to show more listings cutting price. They showed fewer. In Laguna Niguel, 41.1% of listings have taken a price drop over the three months ending September 2026. Last November it was 32.2%, and last December it was 26.2%. Aliso Viejo: 36.1% now, 25.9% last November, 26.6% last December. Dana Point: 26.7% now, 28.3% in November, 21.4% in December. Mission Viejo was flat, about a third of listings in every one of those periods.
My read: the sellers who list over the holidays tend to be the ones who need to sell, and they price accordingly. The ones testing a number are the ones who wait for spring.
Reading it honestly
The holidays do cost you time. Laguna Niguel homes took a median of 52 days to sell in November 2025 and 54 in December, against 45 now and 38 in June 2026. Aliso Viejo went from 32 days in June to 55 in both November and December. Mission Viejo ran about 50 days over the holidays versus 32.5 in June. Dana Point stretched to 61 days in December. Plan on an extra two to three weeks compared with a summer listing.
The median price also tends to dip in December, and I want to be straight about why. Laguna Niguel's median sale price was $1,282,500 in December 2025, against $1,450,000 in September 2025. Aliso Viejo went from $975,000 to $840,000 over the same stretch. But Mission Viejo's December median of $1,170,000 was higher than its September number of $1,152,500, and Dana Point's December median of $2,185,000 was well above its $1,800,000 in September. The median moves because a different set of homes sells, not because every home lost a tenth of its value in ten weeks. The sale-to-list numbers above are a better measure of what a specific, well-priced home gets.
What the numbers don't capture
Who is out looking in December. In my experience it is relocations with a start date, families who want to be settled before a new semester, and buyers who have already lost out once or twice and are tired of competing. They are fewer, but they are serious, and that is exactly the buyer a seller wants walking through the door. I cannot put a number on that, and I will not pretend to.
Inventory is the other half. Fewer sellers list in December, which is the whole reason the sale-to-list spread holds up. If you are the only well-presented home in your tract between Thanksgiving and New Year's, you are not competing with the eight that will all hit the market the first week of March.
If you're selling
Price to the sale-to-list numbers above, not to the hope that a December buyer is desperate. Keep the showings easy: lockbox, flexible hours, the house warm and lit by late afternoon, since it is dark by five. Expect two to three more weeks on market than you would in June. If you can live with that, the holidays are a perfectly good time to sell in South OC, and in some years a better one.
If you're buying
The competition thins. In Laguna Niguel, 19.4% of homes sold above list price in November 2025 and 21.0% in December, against 25.0% now and 28.9% in June. Dana Point: 13.2% in November and 18.0% in December against 27.0% now. Fewer bidding wars, more days to think, and sellers who listed in December usually have a reason. That is leverage, and it fades by February.
If you are weighing a holiday listing and want to know what your specific home would realistically bring in December, call me and I will show you the comps, not a slogan.
Carly Zamani is the Founder and Broker/Owner of zRE Group in Laguna Niguel, California. CA DRE #02030224 | NMLS #1840970.
Market data is historical and not a prediction of future results. Figures cited: Redfin housing market pages for Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, Aliso Viejo and Dana Point, all home types, monthly figures for September 2025 through June 2026 and the three-month period ending September 2026, as shown on those pages on October 26, 2026. Monthly figures are based on small numbers of sales and can be revised. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Sources: Redfin Laguna Niguel Housing Market | Redfin Mission Viejo Housing Market | Redfin Aliso Viejo Housing Market | Redfin Dana Point Housing Market
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